LSE creators

Number of items: 124.
Asia Centre
  • Smith, Leonard A., Stern, Nicholas (2011). Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1956), 4818-4841. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0149
    • Centre for Analysis of Time Series
  • Smith, Leonard A., Du, Hailiang, Higgins, Sarah (2020). Designing multi-model applications with surrogate forecast systems. Monthly Weather Review, 148(6), 2233 - 2249. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0061.1 picture_as_pdf
  • Thompson, Erica L., Smith, Leonard A. (2019). Escape from model-land. Economics, 13, https://doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2019-40 picture_as_pdf
  • Berger, James O., Smith, Leonard A. (2019). On the statistical formalism of uncertainty quantification. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 6, 433-460. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105232
  • Theocharis, Zoe, Smith, Leonard A., Harvey, Nigel (2018). The influence of graphical format on judgmental forecasting accuracy: lines versus points. Futures and Foresight Science, https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.7 picture_as_pdf
  • Jarman, Alexander, Smith, Leonard A. (2018). Quantifying the predictability of a predictand: demonstrating the diverse roles of serial dependence in the estimation of forecast skill. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3384 picture_as_pdf
  • Berger, J., Smith, Leonard A. (2018). Uncertainty quantification. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application,
  • Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2017). Multi-model cross-pollination in time. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 353-4, 31-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2017.06.001
  • Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2017). Rising above chaotic likelihoods. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 5(1), 246-258. https://doi.org/10.1137/140988784
  • Machete, Reason L., Smith, Leonard A. (2016). Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 68, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.28393
  • Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2015). An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese, 192(12), 3979-4008. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8
  • Smith, Leonard A., Suckling, Emma B., Thompson, Erica L., Maynard, Trevor, Du, Hailiang (2015). Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation. Climatic Change, 132(1), 31-45. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1430-2
  • Smith, Leonard A., Du, Hailiang, Suckling, Emma B., Niehörster, Falk (2015). Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(689), 1085-1100. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2403
  • Hazeleger, W., van den Hurk, B.J.J.M., Min, E., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Petersen, A.C., Stainforth, David A., Vasileiadou, E., Smith, L. A. (2015). Tales of future weather. Nature Climate Change, 5(2), 107-113. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2450
  • Thompson, Erica, Smith, Leonard A. (2014-05-08) The hawkmoth effect [Poster]. LSE Research Festival 2014, London, United Kingdom, GBR.
  • Lopez, Ana, Suckling, Emma B., Smith, Leonard A. (2014). Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support. Climatic Change, 122(4), 555-566. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1022-y
  • Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2014). Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part I: the perfect model scenario. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71(2), 469-482. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-032.1
  • Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2014). Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part II: the perfect model scenario. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71(2), 483-495. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-033.1
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2014). Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices. Philosophy of Science, 81(1), 31 - 59. https://doi.org/10.1086/674416
  • Smith, Leonard A., Petersen, Arthur (2014). Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy. In Boumans, Marcel, Petersen, Arthur, Hon, Giora (Eds.), Error and uncertainty in scientific practice (pp. 137-156). Pickering & Chatto.
  • Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2013). The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science, 80(5), 886-897. https://doi.org/10.1086/673892
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Machete, Reason L., Smith, Leonard A. (2013). Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill. In Andersen, Hanne, Dieks, Dennis, Gonzalez, Wenceslao, Ubel, Thomas, Wheeler, Gregory (Eds.), New Challenges to Philosophy of Science (pp. 479-492). Springer Berlin / Heidelberg.
  • Gibbs, Peter, Hanlon, Michael, Hardaker, Paul, Hawkins, Ed, MacDonald, Averil, Maskell, Kathy, Mayfield, Heather, Mclean, Angela, Morris, Elizabeth & Mylne, Ken et al (2013). Making sense of uncertainty: why uncertainty is part of science. Sense About Science.
  • Glendinning, Paul, Smith, Leonard A. (2013). Lacunarity and period-doubling. Dynamical Systems, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1080/14689367.2012.755496
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2013). Laplace's demon and climate change. (Grantham Research Institue on Climate Change and the Environment working paper 103). Grantham Research Institue on Climate Change and the Environment.
  • Suckling, Emma B., Smith, Leonard A. (2013). An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models. Journal of Climate, 26(23), 9334-9347. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00485.1
  • Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2012). Parameter estimation through ignorance. Physical Review E, 86(1), 016213. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.86.016213
  • Rowlands, Daniel J., Frame, David J., Ackerley, Duncan, Aina, Tolu, Booth, Ben B. B., Christensen, Carl, Collins, Matthew, Faull, Nicholas, Forest, Chris E. & Grandey, Benjamin S. et al (2012). Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble. Nature Geoscience, 5(4), 256-260. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1430
  • Stainforth, David A., Smith, Leonard A. (2012). Policy: clarify the limits of climate models. Nature, 489(7415), p. 208. https://doi.org/10.1038/489208a
  • Khare, Shree, Smith, Leonard A. (2011). Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states. Monthly Weather Review, 139(7), 2080-2097. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3186.1
  • Jarman, Alex, Smith, Leonard A. (2011-05-26) Small-number statistics, common sense, and profit: challenges and non-challenges for hurricane forecasting [Poster]. LSE Research Day 2011: The Early Career Researcher, London, United Kingdom, GBR.
  • Smith, Leonard A., Stern, Nicholas (2011). Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1956), 4818-4841. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0149
  • Oreskes, Naomi, Stainforth, David A., Smith, Leonard A. (2010). Adaptation to global warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know? Philosophy of Science, 77(5), 1012-1028. https://doi.org/10.1086/657428
  • Smith, Leonard A., Cuellar, Milena C., Du, Hailiang, Judd, Kevin (2010). Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models. Physics Letters A, 374(26), 2618-2623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2010.04.032
  • Hagedorn, Renate, Smith, Leonard A. (2009). Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with Weather Roulette. Meteorological Applications, 16(2), 143-155. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.92
  • Bröcker, Jochen, Smith, Leonard A. (2008). From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 60(4), 663-678. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00333.x
  • Judd, Kevin, Reynolds, Carolyn A., Rosmond, Thomas E., Smith, Leonard A. (2008). The geometry of model error. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 65(6), 1749-1772. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2327.1
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2007). Letters to the editor: unproven theories have value.
  • Stainforth, David A., Allen, M. R., Tredger, Edward, Smith, Leonard A. (2007). Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365(1857), 2145-2161. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2074
  • Judd, Kevin, Smith, Leonard A., Weisheimer, Antje (2007). How good is an ensemble at capturing truth?: using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133(626), 1309-1325. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.111
  • Bröcker, Jochen, Smith, Leonard A. (2007). Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams. Weather and Forecasting, 22(3), 651-661. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF993.1
  • Bröcker, Jochen, Smith, Leonard A. (2007). Scoring probabilistic forecasts: the importance of being proper. Weather and Forecasting, 22(2), 382-388. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF966.1
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2007). Chaos: a very short introduction. Oxford University Press.
  • Roulston, Mark S, Ellepola, Jerome, von Hardenberg, Jost, Smith, Leonard A. (2005). Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models. Ocean Engineering, 32(14-15), 1841-1863. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2004.11.012
  • Guerrero, Alexandra, Smith, Leonard A. (2005). A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 355(2-4), 619-632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2005.03.002
  • Weisheimer, Antje, Smith, Leonard A., Judd, Kevin (2005). A new view of forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble seasonal forecasts. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 57(3), 265-279. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00106.x
  • Stainforth, David A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A. & Murphy, J. M. et al (2005). Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433(7024), 403-406. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03301
  • Kilminster, Devin, Clark, Liam, Roulston, Mark, Ziehmann, Christine, Bröcker, Jochen, Smith, Leonard (2004). From MOS to eMOS: generalising model output statistics for full ensemble forecasts. (Centre for the Analysis of Time Series). London School of Economics and Political Science.
  • Altalo, Mary G., Smith, Leonard A. (2004). Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk. Environmental Finance, Octobe(Supple), 48-49.
  • Judd, Kevin, Smith, Leonard A. (2004). Indistinguishable states II: the imperfect model scenario. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 196(3-4), 224-242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2004.03.020
  • Smith, Leonard A., Hansen, James A. (2004). Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree. Monthly Weather Review, 132(6), 1522-1528. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1522:ETLOEF>2.0.CO;2
  • McSharry, Patrick E., Smith, Leonard A. (2004). Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 192(1-2), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2004.01.003
  • Golobic, I., Pavlovic, E., von Hardenberg, J., Berry, M., Nelson, R.A., Kenning, D.B.R., Smith, Leonard A. (2004). Comparison of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling with experimental spatio-temporal data. Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 82(4), 435-444. https://doi.org/10.1205/026387604323050146
  • Judd, Kevin, Smith, Leonard A., Weisheimer, Antje (2004). Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative informations. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 190(3-4), 153-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2003.10.011
  • von Hardenberg, Jost, Kenning, David B. R., Xing, Huijuan, Smith, Leonard A. (2004). Identification of nucleation site interactions. International Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow, 25(2), 298-304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijheatfluidflow.2003.11.015
  • Kwasniok, Frank, Smith, Leonard A. (2004). Real-time construction of optimized predictions from data streams. Physical Review Letters, 92(16), 116-120. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.164101
  • Roulston, M.S., Smith, Leonard A. (2004). The boy who cried wolf revisited: the impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios. Weather and Forecasting, 19(2), 391-397. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0391:TBWCWR>2.0.CO;2
  • Guerrero, A., Smith, Leonard A. (2003). Towards coherent estimation of the correlation dimension. Physics Letters A, 318(4-5), 373-379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2003.09.023
  • Orrell, David, Smith, Leonard A. (2003). Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: the spectral bifurcation diagram. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 13(10), 3015-3027. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127403008387
  • Roulston, M.S., Kaplan, D.T., Hardenberg, J., Smith, Leonard A. (2003). Using medium-range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production. Renewable Energy, 28(4), 585-602. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0960-1481(02)00054-X
  • McSharry, Patrick E., Smith, Leonard A., Tarassenko, Lionel (2003). Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant? Nature Medicine, 9(3), 241-242. https://doi.org/10.1038/nm0303-241
  • Roulston, M.S., Smith, Leonard A. (2003). Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 55(1), 16-30. https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2003.201378.x
  • McSharry, P.E., Smith, Leonard A., Tarassenko, L. (2003). Comparison of predictability of epileptic seizures by a linear and a nonlinear method. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50(5), 628-633. https://doi.org/10.1109/TBME.2003.810688
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2003). Predictability and chaos. In Holton, James R., Pyle, John, Curry, Judith A. (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences (pp. 1777-1785). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-12-227090-8/00323-7
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2002-01-01) Predictability past predictability present [Paper]. ECMWF Seminar on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, GBR.
  • McSharry, Patrick E., Clifford, G. D., Tarassenko, L., Smith, Leonard A. (2002). A method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours. Computers in Cardiology, 29, 225-228. https://doi.org/0780377354
  • McSharry, P. E., He, T., Smith, Leonard A., Tarassenko, L. (2002). Linear and non-linear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings. Medical and Biological Engineering and Computing, 40(4), 447-461. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02345078
  • Roulston, Mark S., Smith, Leonard A. (2002). Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Monthly Weather Review, 130(6), 1653-1660. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<1653:EPFUIT>2.0.CO;2
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2002). What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 99(Suppl.), 2487-2492. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.012580599
  • McSharry, Patrick E., Ellepola, Jerome H., von Hardenberg, Jost, Smith, Leonard A., Kenning, David B. R., Judd, Kevin (2002). Spatio-temporal analysis of nucleate pool boiling: identification of nucleation sites using non-orthogonal empirical functions. International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 45(2), 237-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0017-9310(01)00152-1
  • McSharry, P.E., Clifford, G. D., Tarassenko, L., Smith, Leonard A. (2002-09-22 - 2002-09-25) Method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours [Paper]. Computers in Cardiology, Memphis, United States, USA. https://doi.org/10.1109/CIC.2002.1166748
  • Smith, Leonard A., Roulston, Mark S. (2002). Weather and seasonal forecasting. In Dischel, Robert (Ed.), Climate Risk and the Weather Market (pp. 115-126). Risk Books.
  • Gilmour, Isla, Smith, Leonard A., Buizza, Roberto (2001). Linear regime duration: is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 58(22), 3525-3539. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<3525:LRDIHA>2.0.CO;2
  • Hansen, James A., Smith, Leonard A. (2001). Probabilistic noise reduction. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 53(5), 585-598. https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2001.00118.x
  • Judd, Kevin, Smith, Leonard A. (2001). Indistinguishable states I: perfect model scenario. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 151(2-4), 125-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2789(01)00225-1
  • Smith, Leonard A., Roulston, Mark S, von Hardenberg, Jost (2001). End to end ensemble forecasting: towards evaluating the economic value of an ensemble prediction system. (Technical memorandum 336). European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2001). Disentangling uncertainty and error: on the predictability of nonlinear systems. In Mees, Alistair I. (Ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics (pp. 31-64). Birkhäuser (Firm).
  • Orrell, D., Smith, Leonard A., Barkmeijer, J., Palmer, T. N. (2001). Model error in weather forecasting. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 8(6), 357-371. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-8-357-2001
  • Roulston, Mark S, Ziehmann, Christine, Smith, Leonard A. (2001). A forecast reliability index from ensembles: a comparison of methods. London School of Economics and Political Science.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2000-10-01 - 2000-10-04) Limits to Predictability in 2000 and 2100 [Paper]. Proceedings of IEEE 2000 Adaptive Systems for Signal Processing, Communications, and Control Symposium, Alta., Canada, CAN.
  • Hansen, James A., Smith, Leonard A. (2000). The role of operational constraints in selecting supplementary observations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 57(17), 2859-2871. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<2859:TROOCI>2.0.CO;2
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2000). Feeding frenzy is short of juice.
  • Ziehmann, Christine, Smith, Leonard A., Kurths, Jürgen (2000). Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability. Physics Letters A, 271(4), 237-251. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0375-9601(00)00336-4
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2000). Rough survey of how ticks all add up.
  • McSharry, Patrick E., Smith, Leonard A. (1999). Better nonlinear models from noisy data: attractors with maximum likelihood. Physical Review Letters, 83(21), 4285-4288. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.83.4285
  • Smith, Leonard A., Ziehmann, C., Fraedrich, K. (1999). Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 125(560), 2855-2886. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712556005
  • Ziehmann, Christine, Smith, Leonard A., Kurths, Jürgen (1999). The bootstrap and Lyapunov exponents in deterministic chaos. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 126(1-2), 49-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2789(98)00256-5
  • Moroz, Irene M., Smith, Leonard A., Hide, Raymond (1998). Synchronized chaos in coupled double disk homopolar dynamos. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 8(11), 2125-2133. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127498001753
  • Smith, Leonard A., McSharry, Patrick E. (1998-07-08 - 1998-07-10) Just do it: reductionism, modelling and black-box forecasting [Paper]. International Workshop on Advanced Black-Box Techniques for Nonlinear Modeling: Theory and Applications, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium, BEL.
  • Smith, Leonard A., Gilmour, Isla (1998). Enlightenment in shadows. In Kadtke, James B, Bulsara, Adi (Eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Systems Near the Millennium (pp. 335-340). American Institute of Physics.
  • Paparella, F., Provenzale, A., Smith, Leonard A., Taricco, C., Vio, R. (1997). Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes. Physics Letters A, 235(3), 233-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0375-9601(97)00607-5
  • Smith, Leonard A., Gilmour, Isla (1997-10-20 - 1997-10-22) Accountability and internal consistency in ensemble formation [Paper]. Workshop on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, GBR.
  • Allen, Myles R., Smith, Leonard A. (1997). Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis. Physics Letters A, 234(6), 419-428. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0375-9601(97)00559-8
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1997). The maintenance of uncertainty.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1995). Accountability and error in ensemble prediction of baroclinic flows. In Seminar on Predictability, 4-8 September 1995 (pp. 351-368). European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
  • Theiler, James, Smith, Leonard A. (1995). Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. Physical Review E, 51(4), 3738-3741. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.51.3738
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1995). Locally optimized prediction of nonlinear systems: stochastic and deterministic. In Tong, Howell (Ed.), Chaos and Forecasting . World Scientific (Firm).
  • Ziehmann-Schlumbohm, C., Fraedrich, K., Smith, Leonard A. (1995). Ein internes Vorhersagbarkeitsexperiment im Lorenz-Modell. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 4(1), 16-21.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1995). A personal overview of nonlinear time-series analysis from a chaos perspective - comments. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 22(4), 435-437.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1994). Visualizing predictability with chaotic ensembles. In Luk, Franklin T. (Ed.), Advanced Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures, and Implementations V (Proceedings Volume) (pp. 293-304). Society of Photo-optical Instrumentation Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.190844
  • Allen, Myles R., Smith, Leonard A. (1994). Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 21(10), 883-886.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1994). Local optimal prediction: exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 348(1688), 371-381.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1994). Turbulence in the River Severn: a dynamic systems approach. In Beven, Keith J., Chatwin, Phillip C., Millbank, John H. (Eds.), Mixing and Transport in the Environment : a Memorial Volume for Catherine M. Allen (1954-1991) (pp. 383-399). John Wiley & Sons.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1993). Does a meeting in Santa Fe imply chaos? In Weigend, Andreas S., Gershenfeld, Neil A. (Eds.), Time Series Prediction:Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past: Proceedings of the Nato Advanced Research Workshop on (pp. 323-344). Addison-Wesley.
  • Allen, Myles R., Read, Peter L., Smith, Leonard A. (1992). Temperature oscillations. Nature, 359(6397), p. 679. https://doi.org/10.1038/359679b0
  • Provenzale, A., Smith, Leonard A., Vio, R., Murante, G. (1992). Distinguishing between low-dimensional dynamics and randomness in measured time series. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 58(1-4), 31-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2789(92)90100-2
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1992). Identification and prediction of low dimensional dynamics. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 58(1-4), 50-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2789(92)90101-R
  • Allen, Myles R., Read, Peter L., Smith, Leonard A. (1992). Temperature time-series? Nature, 355(6362), p. 686. https://doi.org/10.1038/355686a0
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1992). Comments on the paper of R Smith, estimating dimension in noisy chaotic time series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B: Statistical Methodology, 54(2), 329-352.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1991). Applied chaos: quantifying complex systems. In Atmanspacher, H. (Ed.), Information Dynamics (pp. 97-102). Plenum Press.
  • Smith, Leonard A., Godfrey, K., Fox, P., Warwick, K. (1991). A new technique for fault detection in multi-sensor probes. In International Conference on Control '91, 25-28 March 1991 (pp. 1062-1067). Institution of Electrical Engineers.
  • Thieberger, R., Spiegel, E. A., Smith, Leonard A. (1990). The dimensions of cosmic fractals. In Krasner, Saul (Ed.), The Ubiquity of Chaos (pp. 197-217.). American Association for the Advancement of Science.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1990). Quantifying chaos through predicitve flows and maps: computing unstable periodic orbits. In Abraham, Neal B., Albano, Alfonso (Eds.), Measures of Complexity and Chaos (pp. 359-366). Plenum Press.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1988). Intrinsic limits on dimension calculations. Physics Letters A, 133(6), 283-288. https://doi.org/10.1016/0375-9601(88)90445-8
  • Smith, Leonard A., Spiegel, E. A. (1987). Strange accumulators. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 497(Chaoti), 61-65. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.1987.tb48711.x
  • Smith, Leonard A., Fournier, J. D., Spiegel, E. A. (1986). Lacunarity and intermittency in fluid turbulence. Physics Letters A, 114(8-9), 465-468. https://doi.org/10.1016/0375-9601(86)90695-X
  • Smith, Leonard A., Spiegel, E. A. (1985). Pattern formation by particles settling in viscous flows. Lecture Notes in Physics, 230, 306-318. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-15644-5_25
  • Green, A. E. S., Cross, K. R., Smith, Leonard A. (1980). Improved analytic characterization of ultraviolet skylight. Photochemistry and Photobiology, 31(1), 59-65. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-1097.1980.tb03683.x
    • Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Sciences (CPNSS)
  • Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2015). An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese, 192(12), 3979-4008. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2014). Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices. Philosophy of Science, 81(1), 31 - 59. https://doi.org/10.1086/674416
  • Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2013). The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science, 80(5), 886-897. https://doi.org/10.1086/673892
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Machete, Reason L., Smith, Leonard A. (2013). Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill. In Andersen, Hanne, Dieks, Dennis, Gonzalez, Wenceslao, Ubel, Thomas, Wheeler, Gregory (Eds.), New Challenges to Philosophy of Science (pp. 479-492). Springer Berlin / Heidelberg.
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2013). Laplace's demon and climate change. (Grantham Research Institue on Climate Change and the Environment working paper 103). Grantham Research Institue on Climate Change and the Environment.
    • Grantham Research Institute
  • Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2018). Getting weather back into the definition of climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
  • Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2015). An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese, 192(12), 3979-4008. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8
  • Hazeleger, W., van den Hurk, B.J.J.M., Min, E., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Petersen, A.C., Stainforth, David A., Vasileiadou, E., Smith, L. A. (2015). Tales of future weather. Nature Climate Change, 5(2), 107-113. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2450
  • Smith, Leonard A., Stern, Nicholas (2011). Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1956), 4818-4841. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0149
  • Oreskes, Naomi, Stainforth, David A., Smith, Leonard A. (2010). Adaptation to global warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know? Philosophy of Science, 77(5), 1012-1028. https://doi.org/10.1086/657428
    • India Observatory
  • Smith, Leonard A., Stern, Nicholas (2011). Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1956), 4818-4841. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0149
    • International Relations
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2014). Model error and ensemble forecasting: a cautionary tale. In Guo, Guichun C., Liu, Chuang (Eds.), Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science: Selected Papers from the International Conference on SEMS 2012 Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China, 17–19 September 2012 (pp. 58-68). World Scientific (Firm).
    • LSE
  • Allen, Myles R., Smith, Leonard A. (1996). Monte Carlo SSA: detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of colored noise. Journal of Climate, 9(12), 3373-3404. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<3373:MCSDIO>2.0.CO;2
    • Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
  • Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2015). An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese, 192(12), 3979-4008. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2014). Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices. Philosophy of Science, 81(1), 31 - 59. https://doi.org/10.1086/674416
  • Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2013). The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science, 80(5), 886-897. https://doi.org/10.1086/673892
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Machete, Reason L., Smith, Leonard A. (2013). Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill. In Andersen, Hanne, Dieks, Dennis, Gonzalez, Wenceslao, Ubel, Thomas, Wheeler, Gregory (Eds.), New Challenges to Philosophy of Science (pp. 479-492). Springer Berlin / Heidelberg.
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2013). Laplace's demon and climate change. (Grantham Research Institue on Climate Change and the Environment working paper 103). Grantham Research Institue on Climate Change and the Environment.
    • STICERD
  • Smith, Leonard A., Stern, Nicholas (2011). Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1956), 4818-4841. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0149
    • Statistics
  • Smith, Leonard A., Du, Hailiang, Higgins, Sarah (2020). Designing multi-model applications with surrogate forecast systems. Monthly Weather Review, 148(6), 2233 - 2249. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0061.1 picture_as_pdf
  • Jarman, Alexander, Smith, Leonard A. (2018). Quantifying the predictability of a predictand: demonstrating the diverse roles of serial dependence in the estimation of forecast skill. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3384 picture_as_pdf
  • Berger, J., Smith, Leonard A. (2018). Uncertainty quantification. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application,
  • Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2015). An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese, 192(12), 3979-4008. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8
  • Smith, Leonard A., Suckling, Emma B., Thompson, Erica L., Maynard, Trevor, Du, Hailiang (2015). Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation. Climatic Change, 132(1), 31-45. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1430-2
  • Smith, Leonard A., Du, Hailiang, Suckling, Emma B., Niehörster, Falk (2015). Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(689), 1085-1100. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2403
  • Hazeleger, W., van den Hurk, B.J.J.M., Min, E., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Petersen, A.C., Stainforth, David A., Vasileiadou, E., Smith, L. A. (2015). Tales of future weather. Nature Climate Change, 5(2), 107-113. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2450
  • Lopez, Ana, Suckling, Emma B., Smith, Leonard A. (2014). Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support. Climatic Change, 122(4), 555-566. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1022-y
  • Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2014). Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part I: the perfect model scenario. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71(2), 469-482. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-032.1
  • Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2014). Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part II: the perfect model scenario. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71(2), 483-495. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-033.1
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2014). Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices. Philosophy of Science, 81(1), 31 - 59. https://doi.org/10.1086/674416
  • Smith, Leonard A., Petersen, Arthur (2014). Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy. In Boumans, Marcel, Petersen, Arthur, Hon, Giora (Eds.), Error and uncertainty in scientific practice (pp. 137-156). Pickering & Chatto.
  • Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A. (2013). The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science, 80(5), 886-897. https://doi.org/10.1086/673892
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Machete, Reason L., Smith, Leonard A. (2013). Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill. In Andersen, Hanne, Dieks, Dennis, Gonzalez, Wenceslao, Ubel, Thomas, Wheeler, Gregory (Eds.), New Challenges to Philosophy of Science (pp. 479-492). Springer Berlin / Heidelberg.
  • Gibbs, Peter, Hanlon, Michael, Hardaker, Paul, Hawkins, Ed, MacDonald, Averil, Maskell, Kathy, Mayfield, Heather, Mclean, Angela, Morris, Elizabeth & Mylne, Ken et al (2013). Making sense of uncertainty: why uncertainty is part of science. Sense About Science.
  • Glendinning, Paul, Smith, Leonard A. (2013). Lacunarity and period-doubling. Dynamical Systems, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1080/14689367.2012.755496
  • Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A. (2013). Laplace's demon and climate change. (Grantham Research Institue on Climate Change and the Environment working paper 103). Grantham Research Institue on Climate Change and the Environment.
  • Suckling, Emma B., Smith, Leonard A. (2013). An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models. Journal of Climate, 26(23), 9334-9347. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00485.1
  • Beven, Keith, Buytaert, Wouter, Smith, Leonard A. (2012). On virtual observatories and modelled realities (or why discharge must be treated as a virtual variable). Hydrological Processes, 26(12), 1905-1908. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9261
  • Rowlands, Daniel J., Frame, David J., Ackerley, Duncan, Aina, Tolu, Booth, Ben B. B., Christensen, Carl, Collins, Matthew, Faull, Nicholas, Forest, Chris E. & Grandey, Benjamin S. et al (2012). Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble. Nature Geoscience, 5(4), 256-260. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1430
  • Stainforth, David A., Smith, Leonard A. (2012). Policy: clarify the limits of climate models. Nature, 489(7415), p. 208. https://doi.org/10.1038/489208a
  • Khare, Shree, Smith, Leonard A. (2011). Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states. Monthly Weather Review, 139(7), 2080-2097. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3186.1
  • Smith, Leonard A., Stern, Nicholas (2011). Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1956), 4818-4841. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0149
  • Oreskes, Naomi, Stainforth, David A., Smith, Leonard A. (2010). Adaptation to global warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know? Philosophy of Science, 77(5), 1012-1028. https://doi.org/10.1086/657428
  • Smith, Leonard A., Cuellar, Milena C., Du, Hailiang, Judd, Kevin (2010). Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models. Physics Letters A, 374(26), 2618-2623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2010.04.032
  • Ghil, Michael, Read, Peter, Smith, Leonard A. (2010). Geophysical flows as dynamical systems: the influence of Hide's experiments. Astronomy and Geophysics, 51(4), 4.28-4.35. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-4004.2010.51428.x
  • Hagedorn, Renate, Smith, Leonard A. (2009). Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with Weather Roulette. Meteorological Applications, 16(2), 143-155. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.92
  • Bröcker, Jochen, Smith, Leonard A. (2008). From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 60(4), 663-678. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00333.x
  • Judd, Kevin, Reynolds, Carolyn A., Rosmond, Thomas E., Smith, Leonard A. (2008). The geometry of model error. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 65(6), 1749-1772. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2327.1
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2007). Letters to the editor: unproven theories have value.
  • Stainforth, David A., Allen, M. R., Tredger, Edward, Smith, Leonard A. (2007). Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365(1857), 2145-2161. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2074
  • Judd, Kevin, Smith, Leonard A., Weisheimer, Antje (2007). How good is an ensemble at capturing truth?: using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133(626), 1309-1325. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.111
  • Bröcker, Jochen, Smith, Leonard A. (2007). Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams. Weather and Forecasting, 22(3), 651-661. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF993.1
  • Bröcker, Jochen, Smith, Leonard A. (2007). Scoring probabilistic forecasts: the importance of being proper. Weather and Forecasting, 22(2), 382-388. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF966.1
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2007). Chaos: a very short introduction. Oxford University Press.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2006). Predictability past predictability present. In Palmer, Tim, Hagedorn, Renate (Eds.), Predictability of Weather and Climate (pp. 217-250). Cambridge University Press.
  • Roulston, Mark S, Ellepola, Jerome, von Hardenberg, Jost, Smith, Leonard A. (2005). Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models. Ocean Engineering, 32(14-15), 1841-1863. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2004.11.012
  • Guerrero, Alexandra, Smith, Leonard A. (2005). A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 355(2-4), 619-632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2005.03.002
  • Weisheimer, Antje, Smith, Leonard A., Judd, Kevin (2005). A new view of forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble seasonal forecasts. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 57(3), 265-279. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00106.x
  • Stainforth, David A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A. & Murphy, J. M. et al (2005). Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433(7024), 403-406. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03301
  • Kilminster, Devin, Clark, Liam, Roulston, Mark, Ziehmann, Christine, Bröcker, Jochen, Smith, Leonard (2004). From MOS to eMOS: generalising model output statistics for full ensemble forecasts. (Centre for the Analysis of Time Series). London School of Economics and Political Science.
  • Altalo, Mary G., Smith, Leonard A. (2004). Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk. Environmental Finance, Octobe(Supple), 48-49.
  • Smith, Leonard A., Hansen, James A. (2004). Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree. Monthly Weather Review, 132(6), 1522-1528. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1522:ETLOEF>2.0.CO;2
  • McSharry, Patrick E., Smith, Leonard A. (2004). Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 192(1-2), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2004.01.003
  • Golobic, I., Pavlovic, E., von Hardenberg, J., Berry, M., Nelson, R.A., Kenning, D.B.R., Smith, Leonard A. (2004). Comparison of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling with experimental spatio-temporal data. Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 82(4), 435-444. https://doi.org/10.1205/026387604323050146
  • Judd, Kevin, Smith, Leonard A., Weisheimer, Antje (2004). Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative informations. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 190(3-4), 153-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2003.10.011
  • von Hardenberg, Jost, Kenning, David B. R., Xing, Huijuan, Smith, Leonard A. (2004). Identification of nucleation site interactions. International Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow, 25(2), 298-304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijheatfluidflow.2003.11.015
  • Kwasniok, Frank, Smith, Leonard A. (2004). Real-time construction of optimized predictions from data streams. Physical Review Letters, 92(16), 116-120. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.164101
  • Roulston, M.S., Smith, Leonard A. (2004). The boy who cried wolf revisited: the impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios. Weather and Forecasting, 19(2), 391-397. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0391:TBWCWR>2.0.CO;2
  • Guerrero, A., Smith, Leonard A. (2003). Towards coherent estimation of the correlation dimension. Physics Letters A, 318(4-5), 373-379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2003.09.023
  • Orrell, David, Smith, Leonard A. (2003). Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: the spectral bifurcation diagram. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 13(10), 3015-3027. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127403008387
  • Roulston, M.S., Kaplan, D.T., Hardenberg, J., Smith, Leonard A. (2003). Using medium-range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production. Renewable Energy, 28(4), 585-602. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0960-1481(02)00054-X
  • McSharry, Patrick E., Smith, Leonard A., Tarassenko, Lionel (2003). Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant? Nature Medicine, 9(3), 241-242. https://doi.org/10.1038/nm0303-241
  • Roulston, M.S., Smith, Leonard A. (2003). Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 55(1), 16-30. https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2003.201378.x
  • McSharry, P.E., Smith, Leonard A., Tarassenko, L. (2003). Comparison of predictability of epileptic seizures by a linear and a nonlinear method. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50(5), 628-633. https://doi.org/10.1109/TBME.2003.810688
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2003). Predictability and chaos. In Holton, James R., Pyle, John, Curry, Judith A. (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences (pp. 1777-1785). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-12-227090-8/00323-7
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2002-01-01) Predictability past predictability present [Paper]. ECMWF Seminar on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, GBR.
  • McSharry, P. E., Clifford, G. D., Tarassenko, L., Smith, Leonard A. (2003). A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50(3), 289-294. https://doi.org/10.1109/TBME.2003.808805
  • McSharry, Patrick E., Clifford, G. D., Tarassenko, L., Smith, Leonard A. (2002). A method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours. Computers in Cardiology, 29, 225-228. https://doi.org/0780377354
  • McSharry, P. E., He, T., Smith, Leonard A., Tarassenko, L. (2002). Linear and non-linear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings. Medical and Biological Engineering and Computing, 40(4), 447-461. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02345078
  • Roulston, Mark S., Smith, Leonard A. (2002). Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Monthly Weather Review, 130(6), 1653-1660. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<1653:EPFUIT>2.0.CO;2
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2002). What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 99(Suppl.), 2487-2492. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.012580599
  • McSharry, Patrick E., Ellepola, Jerome H., von Hardenberg, Jost, Smith, Leonard A., Kenning, David B. R., Judd, Kevin (2002). Spatio-temporal analysis of nucleate pool boiling: identification of nucleation sites using non-orthogonal empirical functions. International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 45(2), 237-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0017-9310(01)00152-1
  • McSharry, P.E., Clifford, G. D., Tarassenko, L., Smith, Leonard A. (2002-09-22 - 2002-09-25) Method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours [Paper]. Computers in Cardiology, Memphis, United States, USA. https://doi.org/10.1109/CIC.2002.1166748
  • Smith, Leonard A., Roulston, Mark S. (2002). Weather and seasonal forecasting. In Dischel, Robert (Ed.), Climate Risk and the Weather Market (pp. 115-126). Risk Books.
  • Gilmour, Isla, Smith, Leonard A., Buizza, Roberto (2001). Linear regime duration: is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 58(22), 3525-3539. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<3525:LRDIHA>2.0.CO;2
  • Hansen, James A., Smith, Leonard A. (2001). Probabilistic noise reduction. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 53(5), 585-598. https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2001.00118.x
  • Judd, Kevin, Smith, Leonard A. (2001). Indistinguishable states I: perfect model scenario. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 151(2-4), 125-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2789(01)00225-1
  • Smith, Leonard A., Roulston, Mark S, von Hardenberg, Jost (2001). End to end ensemble forecasting: towards evaluating the economic value of an ensemble prediction system. (Technical memorandum 336). European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2001). Disentangling uncertainty and error: on the predictability of nonlinear systems. In Mees, Alistair I. (Ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics (pp. 31-64). Birkhäuser (Firm).
  • Orrell, D., Smith, Leonard A., Barkmeijer, J., Palmer, T. N. (2001). Model error in weather forecasting. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 8(6), 357-371. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-8-357-2001
  • Roulston, Mark S, Ziehmann, Christine, Smith, Leonard A. (2001). A forecast reliability index from ensembles: a comparison of methods. London School of Economics and Political Science.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2000-10-01 - 2000-10-04) Limits to Predictability in 2000 and 2100 [Paper]. Proceedings of IEEE 2000 Adaptive Systems for Signal Processing, Communications, and Control Symposium, Alta., Canada, CAN.
  • Hansen, James A., Smith, Leonard A. (2000). The role of operational constraints in selecting supplementary observations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 57(17), 2859-2871. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<2859:TROOCI>2.0.CO;2
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2000). Feeding frenzy is short of juice.
  • Ziehmann, Christine, Smith, Leonard A., Kurths, Jürgen (2000). Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability. Physics Letters A, 271(4), 237-251. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0375-9601(00)00336-4
  • Smith, Leonard A. (2000). Rough survey of how ticks all add up.
  • McSharry, Patrick E., Smith, Leonard A. (1999). Better nonlinear models from noisy data: attractors with maximum likelihood. Physical Review Letters, 83(21), 4285-4288. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.83.4285
  • Smith, Leonard A., Ziehmann, C., Fraedrich, K. (1999). Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 125(560), 2855-2886. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712556005
  • Ziehmann, Christine, Smith, Leonard A., Kurths, Jürgen (1999). The bootstrap and Lyapunov exponents in deterministic chaos. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 126(1-2), 49-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2789(98)00256-5
  • Moroz, Irene M., Smith, Leonard A., Hide, Raymond (1998). Synchronized chaos in coupled double disk homopolar dynamos. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 8(11), 2125-2133. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127498001753
  • Smith, Leonard A., McSharry, Patrick E. (1998-07-08 - 1998-07-10) Just do it: reductionism, modelling and black-box forecasting [Paper]. International Workshop on Advanced Black-Box Techniques for Nonlinear Modeling: Theory and Applications, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium, BEL.
  • Smith, Leonard A., Gilmour, Isla (1998). Enlightenment in shadows. In Kadtke, James B, Bulsara, Adi (Eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Systems Near the Millennium (pp. 335-340). American Institute of Physics.
  • Paparella, F., Provenzale, A., Smith, Leonard A., Taricco, C., Vio, R. (1997). Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes. Physics Letters A, 235(3), 233-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0375-9601(97)00607-5
  • Smith, Leonard A., Gilmour, Isla (1997-10-20 - 1997-10-22) Accountability and internal consistency in ensemble formation [Paper]. Workshop on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, GBR.
  • Allen, Myles R., Smith, Leonard A. (1997). Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis. Physics Letters A, 234(6), 419-428. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0375-9601(97)00559-8
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1997). The maintenance of uncertainty.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1995). Accountability and error in ensemble prediction of baroclinic flows. In Seminar on Predictability, 4-8 September 1995 (pp. 351-368). European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
  • Theiler, James, Smith, Leonard A. (1995). Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. Physical Review E, 51(4), 3738-3741. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.51.3738
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1995). Locally optimized prediction of nonlinear systems: stochastic and deterministic. In Tong, Howell (Ed.), Chaos and Forecasting . World Scientific (Firm).
  • Ziehmann-Schlumbohm, C., Fraedrich, K., Smith, Leonard A. (1995). Ein internes Vorhersagbarkeitsexperiment im Lorenz-Modell. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 4(1), 16-21.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1995). A personal overview of nonlinear time-series analysis from a chaos perspective - comments. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 22(4), 435-437.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1994). Visualizing predictability with chaotic ensembles. In Luk, Franklin T. (Ed.), Advanced Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures, and Implementations V (Proceedings Volume) (pp. 293-304). Society of Photo-optical Instrumentation Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.190844
  • Allen, Myles R., Smith, Leonard A. (1994). Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 21(10), 883-886.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1994). Local optimal prediction: exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 348(1688), 371-381.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1994). Turbulence in the River Severn: a dynamic systems approach. In Beven, Keith J., Chatwin, Phillip C., Millbank, John H. (Eds.), Mixing and Transport in the Environment : a Memorial Volume for Catherine M. Allen (1954-1991) (pp. 383-399). John Wiley & Sons.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1993). Does a meeting in Santa Fe imply chaos? In Weigend, Andreas S., Gershenfeld, Neil A. (Eds.), Time Series Prediction:Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past: Proceedings of the Nato Advanced Research Workshop on (pp. 323-344). Addison-Wesley.
  • Allen, Myles R., Read, Peter L., Smith, Leonard A. (1992). Temperature oscillations. Nature, 359(6397), p. 679. https://doi.org/10.1038/359679b0
  • Provenzale, A., Smith, Leonard A., Vio, R., Murante, G. (1992). Distinguishing between low-dimensional dynamics and randomness in measured time series. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 58(1-4), 31-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2789(92)90100-2
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1992). Identification and prediction of low dimensional dynamics. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 58(1-4), 50-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2789(92)90101-R
  • Allen, Myles R., Read, Peter L., Smith, Leonard A. (1992). Temperature time-series? Nature, 355(6362), p. 686. https://doi.org/10.1038/355686a0
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1992). Comments on the paper of R Smith, estimating dimension in noisy chaotic time series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B: Statistical Methodology, 54(2), 329-352.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1991). Applied chaos: quantifying complex systems. In Atmanspacher, H. (Ed.), Information Dynamics (pp. 97-102). Plenum Press.
  • Smith, Leonard A., Godfrey, K., Fox, P., Warwick, K. (1991). A new technique for fault detection in multi-sensor probes. In International Conference on Control '91, 25-28 March 1991 (pp. 1062-1067). Institution of Electrical Engineers.
  • Thieberger, R., Spiegel, E. A., Smith, Leonard A. (1990). The dimensions of cosmic fractals. In Krasner, Saul (Ed.), The Ubiquity of Chaos (pp. 197-217.). American Association for the Advancement of Science.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1990). Quantifying chaos through predicitve flows and maps: computing unstable periodic orbits. In Abraham, Neal B., Albano, Alfonso (Eds.), Measures of Complexity and Chaos (pp. 359-366). Plenum Press.
  • Smith, Leonard A. (1988). Intrinsic limits on dimension calculations. Physics Letters A, 133(6), 283-288. https://doi.org/10.1016/0375-9601(88)90445-8
  • Smith, Leonard A., Spiegel, E. A. (1987). Strange accumulators. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 497(Chaoti), 61-65. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.1987.tb48711.x
  • Smith, Leonard A., Fournier, J. D., Spiegel, E. A. (1986). Lacunarity and intermittency in fluid turbulence. Physics Letters A, 114(8-9), 465-468. https://doi.org/10.1016/0375-9601(86)90695-X
  • Smith, Leonard A., Spiegel, E. A. (1985). Pattern formation by particles settling in viscous flows. Lecture Notes in Physics, 230, 306-318. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-15644-5_25
  • Green, A. E. S., Cross, K. R., Smith, Leonard A. (1980). Improved analytic characterization of ultraviolet skylight. Photochemistry and Photobiology, 31(1), 59-65. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-1097.1980.tb03683.x